Euro, over 5 lei? Who makes gloomy predictions about the exchange rate

2020 is an election year in Romania, with two rounds of elections, but also with a health crisis. For this reason, fluctuations in the euro-leu exchange rate are expected.

Several foreign banks are coming up with their own forecasts for the leu-euro ratio. Specialists from JPMorgan, Mitsubishi Financial, Erste, Commerzbank and BNP Paribas estimate exchange rate fluctuations, some influenced by local and parliamentary elections, but also by the health crisis.

There are bankers who believe that one euro will jump from the threshold of 5 lei. Some believe this will happen this year, others are moving forward the first months of next year. Most, however, talk about a stable course in the next period, in the absence of major unforeseen events.

The above-mentioned banks estimate an exchange rate of 4.88 lei / euro in the last quarter of this year. The average estimates of foreign bankers show that they expect the euro to cross the 4.9 lei threshold only in the first quarter of next year, in the context in which at that time it should have Parliamentary elections are over, writes

Bloomberg points out, however, that there is a German state-owned bank, Landesbank Baden-Württemberg, which comes with a bleak scenario. The institution anticipates an exchange rate of 5.2 lei / euro in the fourth quarter of this year, with a depreciation train for the leu and the following year, at 5.25 lei / euro in the first quarter. and at 5.3 lei / euro in the second quarter.

The French from BNP Paribas also believe that the euro will jump over the 5 lei threshold, but only in the first quarter of next year.

Also, the Americans from JPMorgan estimate an exchange rate of 4.9 lei / euro in the last three months of 2020, with a gradual increase, to 4.95 lei / euro in the first three months of the following year. And at 5 lei in the second quarter. The two main survey banks present in Romania, Erste (through BCR) and Raiffeisen, have similar estimates. Thus, the two Austrian credit institutions see the exchange rate at 4.9 lei in the last three months of the year and gradually increase the following year, when it should finally reach almost 5 lei / euro (4.98 lei / euro – Raiffeisen È ™ i 4.99 lei / euro – Erste).

“We expect the leu to continue to depreciate as long as twin deficits are relatively high. Our forecast indicates a depreciation of the leu of 2-3% per year in nominal terms. A broader correction compared to historical developments should not be ruled out, however, after the parliamentary elections. The NBR will probably continue to intervene in the foreign exchange market to temper volatility, but not against the market trend. Foreign exchange reserves at a record level of 36.2 billion euros in July provide the central bank with enough money 'Ie to mitigate the depreciation of the leu “, according to a note of the Austrian bank's analysts.

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