The most pessimistic scenario: why the current virus could become seasonal

Due to the colds that come with the colder months of the year, we are too familiar with the seasonal patterns of respiratory viruses.

Thus, according to Frontiers in Public Health, it is suggested that COVID-19, the disease caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, will probably follow the example of other viruses and become seasonal in countries with temperate climates, but only when a certain level of immunization is reached. Until then, the virus will continue to circulate throughout the seasons.

These findings highlight the absolute importance of public health measures needed right now to control the virus.

The study's lead author, Dr. Hassan Zaraket, of the American University of Beirut, Lebanon, warns that COVID-19 is here to stay and will continue to produce outbreaks throughout the year until When human immunization will be obtained.

Therefore, people must learn to live with it and continue to practice the best preventive measures, including wearing masks, physical distance, hand hygiene, and avoiding gatherings. ” .

Also, co-author Dr. Hadi Yassine of the University of Qatar in Doha says there may be multiple waves of COVID-19 before effective immunization is achieved. We know that many respiratory viruses follow seasonal patterns, especially in temperate regions.

For example, influenza and several types of coronaviruses that cause the common cold are known to peak in the winter in temperate regions, but circulate throughout the year in the tropics.

The authors analyzed these seasonal viruses, examining the viral factors and the host that controls their seasonality, as well as the latest knowledge on the stability and transmission of SARS-CoV-2.

Researchers explain that the survival of the virus in the air and on surfaces, the susceptibility of people to infections and human behavior, such as crowding in indoor public spaces, differs over the seasons. due to changes in temperature and humidity.

Dr. Yassine also states that the highest overall COVID-19 infection rate per capita has been recorded in the Gulf states, regardless of the season. Even if this is attributed to a large measure of the rapid spread of the virus in closed communities, states once again that rigorous control measures are needed to limit the spread of the virus until it is achieved. colectivă “.

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